The Foot Soldiers of Illogic: The Failure to Understand Statistics (1)

Anger is a double edged sword, it could derive one to pursue different subjects passionately, but also blind that person to ignore or simply not understand the facts of the matter. Issues of racism in US have much anger and passion surrounding them, and thus many angry fools on all sides making nonsensical claims.

Read the case of our good blogger, Ziggs Unscripted [1]:

Kill the myth that Mexicans and Blacks cause the most rape in the USA

I’ve been pretty mad the last couple of days.  From Donald Trump saying that all Mexicans are rapists and criminals (except that few “good ones”) to that white terrorist saying that blacks are rapists that are taking over this country.

I’ve done some digging and apparently white men are more likely to rape and cause sexual assault in this country.  Not Blacks, Mexicans, Asians, etc. but White men.  And its hardly a contest about 65% of rapists in 2012 were white. Yea just let that sink in.

Here are some Sources: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/tables/43tabledatadecoverviewpdf

http://www.sarsonline.org/resources-stats/reports-laws-statics

https://www.rainn.org/get-information/statistics/sexual-assault-offenders

http://ovc.ncjrs.gov/sartkit/about/about-sa-so.html

One may not dig, when one does not have the understanding of a high school student to interpret and use the findings to get a meaningful conclusion.

First, one must define the ideas being confirmed or debunked very clearly. We should ask, “What” is actually being debunked? The author of that post wishes to debunk “Most rapes are caused by non-whites”. This is clear from the title, however, at the start of the article we clearly see another claim, namely that of Mr. dead-fox-on-empty-head, Donald Trump and other racists: “All (or most) non-white people are rapists”.

It must be shown to the author of the above post that debunking the first claim does not debunk the latter. In other words, one can prove without contradiction that: “Most rapists are white” is true, while “Most non-whites are rapists” is also true. The truth of the second statement can only be determined when we compare the number of non-white rapists in proportion to their respective population.

This ratio will mathematically translate to the total number of rapists of each ethnicity divided by the total population of that ethnicity, all definitions kept the same.

The author of that post must stop being mad about things that bother him/her, and start thinking more clearly. Maybe take some time to study a bit more about how to analyse statistical facts.

//

Note: These numbers, even corrected, mean nothing on their own. Too many variables (from social to criminal justice system) are involved, and to my knowledge no study links race and violent sexual behavior directly.

_____________________________

[1] http://ziger123.tumblr.com/post/121936726589/kill-the-myth-that-mexicans-and-blacks-cause-the

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thetruthfulheretic

Dear fellow Homo sapiens, or if you prefer conscious mammals! And of course, friends nonetheless: I created my blog in order to speak my very weird mind, mostly about three subjects (as I identify myself and my state of mind with them): Atheism, as I was born in the Middle East and saw and felt the affects of Islam; Homosexuality and equal rights, as a gay man who has tasted the Homophobia and also Sexism in that society; and Liberalism and political philosophy, which I think is a good ground for secular values and criticism of fundamentalism. If you wish, visit and join your state of mind to mine. I hope they don't short circuit!

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